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西南地区冬季气温年代际变化及可能成因分析
郑然1,2, 刘嘉慧敏3, 马振峰1,2
1. 四川省气候中心,四川 成都,610072;2. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害 四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610072;3. 陕西省气象台,陕西 西安 721001
摘要:
利用西南地区1970—2015年气象台站逐月气温资料,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了西南地区冬季气温的年代际变化特征,并探讨了其年代际转折的可能物理机制。结果表明,西南地区冬季气温于1990年代前期发生暖突变。夏季热带西太平洋海温关键区(120~160 °E,10 °S~20 °N)与西南地区冬季气温在同时期发生暖突变,由于大气对海洋变暖的响应,在其西北侧激发了异常的气旋式环流,这种准GILL态使得西南地区恰好处于偏东偏南的暖湿气流中,配合西风急流偏强偏北,东亚大槽浅薄,不利于冷空气南下,西太副高偏强偏西使西南地区受下沉气流控制增温,并处于暖平流影响下,造成西南地区冬季年代际变暖。
关键词:  西南地区  冬季气温  热带西太平洋  海温
DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.036
分类号:
基金项目:
INTERDECADAL VARIATION AND POSSIBLE CAUSES OF WINTER TEMPERATURE IN SOUTHWEST CHINA
ZHENG Ran1,2, LIU Jia-huimin3, MA Zhen-feng1,2
1. The climate center in Sichuan province,Chengdu 610072,China;2. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration /Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;3. Meteorological observatory in Shaanxi province,Xi'an 721001,China
Abstract:
Stations monthly temperature observations are combined with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the interdecadal change characteristics of winter temperature in Southwest China. The possible physical mechanism is also discussed. The result shows that the winter temperature in Southwest China experienced a warm mutation in the early 1990s. The tropical western pacific SST key area(10 °S~20 °N,120~160 °E) in summer has a same mutation period with the southwest winter temperature. Because of the response of the atmosphere to the warming of the oceans, anomalous cyclonic circulation has been inspired on the northwest side. The quasi Gill state makes the southwest area just in the southerly and easterly flows which are warm and humid, cooperate with westerly jet is strong and northward, East Asia major trough is shallow, make against the cold air to go south. Subtropical high over the West Pacific Ocean is strong and westward make the southwest area is controlled by the downward flow and under the influence of warm advection, causing the interdecadal warming in Southwest China in the winter.
Key words:  The Southwest China  winter temperature  tropical West Pacific Ocean  SST
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